ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018 12 November 2018 Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity. ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin">Read more
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018 7 November 2018 We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region. Read more
Spatial assessments of soil organic carbon for stakeholder decision-making – a case study from Kenya SOIL DOI 10.5194/soil-4-259-2018 7 November 2018 Land degradation impacts the health and livelihoods of about 1.5 billion people worldwide. The state of the environment and food security are strongly interlinked in tropical landscapes. This paper demonstrates the integration of soil organic carbon (SOC) and land health maps with socioeconomic datasets into an online, open-access platform called the Resilience Diagnostic and Decision Support Tool for Turkana County in Kenya. Read more
Cascading transitions in the climate system Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 6 November 2018 We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature. Read more
Predominance of methanogens over methanotrophs in rewetted fens characterized by high methane emissions Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-15-6519-2018 6 November 2018 Rewetting drained peatlands may lead to prolonged emission of the greenhouse gas methane, but the underlying factors are not well described. In this study, we found two rewetted fens with known high methane fluxes had a high ratio of microbial methane producers to methane consumers and a low abundance of methane consumers compared to pristine wetlands. We therefore suggest abundances of methane-cycling microbes as potential indicators for prolonged high methane emissions in rewetted peatlands. Read more
Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018 5 November 2018 In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed. Read more
The influence of upper-plate advance and erosion on overriding plate deformation in orogen syntaxes Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-9-1207-2018 5 November 2018 In this modeling study, we investigate rock uplift at plate corners (syntaxes). These are characterized by a unique bent geometry at subduction zones and exhibit some of the world’s highest rock uplift rates. We find that the style of deformation changes above the plate’s bent section and that active subduction is necessary to generate an isolated region of rapid uplift. Strong erosion there localizes uplift on even smaller scales, suggesting both tectonic and surface processes are important. Read more
Additional global climate cooling by clouds due to ice crystal complexity Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-18-15767-2018 2 November 2018 Using light diffraction it is possible to detect microscopic features within ice particles that have not yet been fully characterized. Here, this technique was applied in airborne measurements, where it was found that majority of atmospheric ice particles have features that significantly change the way ice particles interact with solar light. The microscopic features make ice-containing clouds more reflective than previously thought, which could have consequences for predicting our climate. Read more
Mesoscale fine structure of a tropopause fold over mountains Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-18-15643-2018 30 October 2018 GLORIA observations during two crossings of the polar front jet stream resolve the fine mesoscale structure of a tropopause fold in high detail. Tracer–tracer correlations of H2O and O3 are presented as a function of potential temperature and reveal an active mixing region. Our study confirms conceptual models of tropopause folds, validates the high quality of ECMWF IFS forecasts, and suggests that mountain waves are capable of modulating exchange processes in the vicinity of tropopause folds. Read more
Oblique rifting: the rule, not the exception Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-9-1187-2018 26 October 2018 Fragmentation of continents often involves obliquely rifting segments that feature a complex three-dimensional structural evolution. Here we show that more than ~ 70 % of Earth’s rifted margins exceeded an obliquity of 20° demonstrating that oblique rifting should be considered the rule, not the exception. This highlights the importance of three-dimensional approaches in modelling, surveying, and interpretation of those rift segments where oblique rifting is the dominant mode of deformation. Read more
