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Using network theory and machine learning to predict El Niño

The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to 6 months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning which predicts El Niño up to 1 year ahead.

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM_2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Despite the speculation on the state and fate of Larsen C Ice Shelf, a key unknown factor remains: what would be the effects of ice-shelf collapse on upstream drainage basins and thus global sea levels? In our paper three state-of-the-art numerical ice-sheet models were used to simulate the volume evolution of the inland ice sheet to ice-shelf collapse at Larsen C and George VI ice shelves. Our results suggest sea-level rise of up to ~ 4 mm for Larsen C ice shelf and ~ 22 for George VI ice shelf.

Mineralogy and physicochemical features of Saharan dust wet deposited in the Iberian Peninsula during an extreme red rain event

Saharan dust wet deposited in Granada (Spain) on 21–23 February 2017 during the most extreme red rain event of the last decades led to the deposition of ~ 140 000 T of dust just in the city of Granada, dwarfing any other standard Saharan dust events taking place in the area. The multianalytical study of Saharan dust disclosed potential source areas and the mineralogy and composition of the size fractions of desert dust as well as its potential biogeochemical, radiative, and health effects.

In-depth characterization of diazotroph activity across the western tropical South Pacific hotspot of N₂ fixation (OUTPACE cruise)

Here we report N₂ fixation rates from a ∼ 4000 km transect in the western and central tropical South Pacific, a particularly undersampled region in the world ocean.

Ionospheric and thermospheric response to the 27–28 February 2014 geomagnetic storm over north Africa

The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that it addresses the thermosphere–ionosphere coupling in a midlatitude site in north Africa. We have used Fabry–Perot measurements of thermospheric winds and wide-angle camera detection of ionospheric structures at an altitude of about 250 km. We have also used GPS data to extract the TEC over the studied area. We have focused our study on the 27 February geomagnetic storm.

On the role of the North Equatorial Counter Current during a strong El Niño

Results from a high-resolution ocean model show that during the strong El Niños of 1983 and 1998, transport of warm water in the equatorial Pacific was dominated by the North Equatorial Counter Current and not by equatorial Kelvin waves. The results show why the NECC fails to do this in most years and how stronger than normal annual Rossby waves near the Equator can both trigger the El Niño in the western Pacific and help to ensure that the warm water arrives off South America around Christmas.

On the dynamic nature of hydrological similarity

In this study we explore the role of spatially distributed information on hydrological modeling. For that, we develop and test an approach which draws upon information theory and thermodynamic reasoning. We show that the proposed set of methods provide a powerful framework for understanding and diagnosing how and when process organization and functional similarity of hydrological systems emerge in time and, hence, when which landscape characteristic is important in a model application.

Parametric covariance dynamics for the nonlinear diffusive Burgers equation

The forecast of weather prediction uncertainty is a real challenge and is crucial for risk management. However, uncertainty prediction is beyond the capacity of supercomputers, and improvements of the technology may not solve this issue. A new uncertainty prediction method is introduced which takes advantage of fluid equations to predict simple quantities which approximate real uncertainty but at a low numerical cost. A proof of concept is shown by an academic model derived from fluid dynamics.

The diurnal cycle of cloud profiles over land and ocean between 51°S and 51°N, seen by the CATS spaceborne lidar from the International Space Station

From 3 years of observations from the CATS lidar on the International Space Station we document the daily cycle of the vertical distribution of clouds. This is the first time this is documented over several continents and oceans using finely resolved measurements on a near-global scale from a single instrument. We show that other instruments observing clouds from space, like CALIPSO, document extremes of the daily cycle over ocean and closer to the average over land.

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