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The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is a widely used hydrologic model. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5, which includes a reconfiguration of the model source code to support a wider range of modeling applications. It also represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for a range of modeling applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.

Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.

The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance

We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.

Sporadic auroras near the geomagnetic equator: in the Philippines, on 27 October 1856

A record has been found of an “aurora” observed on 27 October 1856 in the Philippines, practically at the magnetic equator. An analysis of this report indicates that it could belong to a “sporadic aurora” because of low magnetic activity at that time. We provide a possible physical mechanism that could explain the appearance of this sporadic, low-latitude aurora, according to the analyses on the observational report and magnetic observations at that time.

Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 ºC global warming target

Results show that an additional 6.97 million people will be exposed to droughts in China under a 1.5 ºC target relative to reference period, mostly in the east of China. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure. Moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure among 3 grades of drought. Our simulations suggest that drought impact on people will continue to be a large threat to China under the 1.5 ºC target. It will be helpful in guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses

Small particles in Earth’s atmosphere (also referred to as atmospheric aerosols) emitted by human activities impact Earth’s climate in complex ways and play an important role in Earth’s water cycle. We use a climate modeling approach and find that aerosols from the United States and Europe can have substantial effects on rainfall in far-away regions such as Africa’s Sahel or the Mediterranean. Air pollution controls in these regions may help reduce the likelihood and severity of Sahel drought.

Overflow of cold water across the Iceland–Faroe Ridge through the Western Valley

The Western Valley is one of the passages across the Iceland–Scotland Ridge through which a strong overflow of cold, dense water has been thought to feed the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but its strength has not been known. Based on a field experiment with instruments moored across the valley, we show that this overflow branch is much weaker than previously thought and that this is because it is suppressed by the warm countercurrent in the upper layers.

Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018
23 August 2018

Landslides are a hazard in terrestrial environments with slopes. This paper presents global analysis on patterns of fatal landsliding between 2004 and 2016, using a database collated from media reporting. The data show ~ 56 000 people were killed in 4862 landslide events. Active landslide years coincide with patterns of regional rainfall: most landslides were rainfall triggered. For the first time, analysis shows the number of landslides triggered by human activity increased with time.

Dissolved Pb and Pb isotopes in the North Atlantic from the GEOVIDE transect (GEOTRACES GA-01) and their decadal evolution

During a French cruise in the northern North Atlantic Ocean in 2014, seawater samples were collected for dissolved Pb and Pb isotope analysis. Lead concentrations were highest in subsurface water flowing out of the Mediterranean Sea. The recently formed Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is much lower in Pb concentration than older LSW found in the West European Basin. Comparison of North Atlantic data from 1981 to 2014 shows decreasing Pb concentrations down to ~ 2500 m depth.

Estimating time-dependent vegetation biases in the SMAP soil moisture product

Satellite soil moisture products can provide critical information on incipient droughts and the interplay between vegetation and water availability. However, time-variant systematic errors in the soil moisture products may impede their usefulness. Using a novel statistical approach, we detect such errors (associated with changing vegetation) in the SMAP soil moisture product. The vegetation-associated biases impede drought detection and the quantification of vegetation–water interactions.

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