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A semi-empirical potential energy surface and line list for H216O extending into the near-ultraviolet

Water vapour has a complex spectrum and absorbs from the microwave to the near-UV where it dissociates. There is limited knowledge of the absorption features in the near-UV, and there is a large disagreement for the available models and experiments. We created a new ab initio model that is in good agreement with observation at 363 nm. At lower wavelengths, our calculations suggest that the latest experiments overestimate absorption. This has implications for trace gas retrievals in the near-UV.

Revisiting global satellite observations of stratospheric cirrus clouds

Cirrus clouds appearing in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere have important impacts on the radiation budget and climate change. We revisited global stratospheric cirrus clouds with CALIPSO and for the first time with MIPAS satellite observations. Stratospheric cirrus clouds related to deep convection are frequently detected in the tropics. At middle latitudes, MIPAS detects more than twice as many stratospheric cirrus clouds due to higher detection sensitivity.

Groundwater storage dynamics in the world’s large aquifer systems fromGRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation

Recent assessments of the sustainability of global groundwater resources using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites assume that the underlying trends are linear. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwater storage (ΔGWS) in the world’s large aquifer systems using an ensemble of GRACE datasets and show that trends are mostly non-linear. Non-linearity in ΔGWS derives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishment associated with extreme precipitation.

Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998

Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.

Climatic information archived in ice cores: impact of intermittency and diffusion on the recorded isotopic signal in Antarctica

The isotopic composition in ice cores from Antarctica is usually interpreted as a temperature proxy. Using a forward model, we show how different the signal in ice cores and the actual climatic signal are. Precipitation intermittency and diffusion do indeed affect the archived signal, leading to the reshuffling of the signal which limits the ability to reconstruct high-resolution climatic variations with ice cores.

Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.

ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments

Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO ₂ and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO ₂ it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.

Open weather and climate science in the digital era

At the 14th IEEE International eScience Conference domain specialists and data and computer scientists discussed the road towards open weather and climate science. Open science offers manifold opportunities but goes beyond sharing code and data. Besides domain-specific technical challenges, we observed that the main challenges are non-technical and impact the system of science as a whole.

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