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Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.

EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble">Read more

The ESA MIPAS/Envisat level2-v8 dataset: 10 years of measurements retrieved with ORM v8.22

The level-2 v8 database from the measurements of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), aboard the European Space Agency Envisat satellite, containing atmospheric fields of pressure, temperature, and volume mixing ratio of 21 trace gases, is described in this paper. The database covers all the measurements acquired by MIPAS (from July 2002 to April 2012). The number of species included makes it of particular importance for the studies of stratospheric chemistry.

ESA MIPAS/Envisat level2-v8 dataset: 10 years of measurements retrieved with ORM v8.22">Read more

A simple model of ozone–temperature coupling in the tropical lower stratosphere

Balloon and satellite observations show strong coupling between large-scale ozone and temperature fields in the tropical lower stratosphere, spanning timescales of days to years. We present a simple interpretation of this behaviour based on an idealized model of transport by the tropical stratospheric circulation, and good quantitative agreement with observations demonstrates that this is a useful simplification. The results provide simple understanding of observed atmospheric behaviour.

Secondary ice production during the break-up of freezing water drops on impact with ice particles

Secondary ice production (SIP) plays an important role in ice formation within mixed-phase clouds. We present a laboratory investigation of a potentially new SIP mechanism involving the collisions of supercooled water drops with ice particles. At impact, the supercooled water drop fragments form smaller secondary drops. Approximately 30 % of the secondary drops formed during the retraction phase of the supercooled water drop impact freeze over a temperature range of -4 °C to -12 °C.

Deep oceanic submarine fieldwork with undergraduate students: an immersive experience with the Minerve software

We use the Minerve virtual reality software to bring undergraduate students to an unusual field trip at 1200 m below sea level in the Lesser Antilles area. This region is located above an active subduction zone responsible for intense volcanic and seismic activity. In particular, we focus on the Roseau submarine fault that ruptured during the Mw 6.3 Les Saintes earthquake and presented a fresh scarp that the students can analyse and map in VR. They compile their results in a GIS project.

Impact of the melt–albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple

With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.

PISM-dEBM-simple">Read more

The blue suns of 1831: was the eruption of Ferdinandea, near Sicily, one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century?

An unidentified eruption in 1831 was one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century. We use reported observations of a blue sun to reconstruct the transport of an aerosol plume from that eruption and, hence, identify it as the 1831 eruption of Ferdinandea, near Sicily. We propose that, although it was only a modest eruption, its volcanic plume was enriched with sulphur from sedimentary deposits and that meteorological conditions helped it reach the stratosphere.

Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level

Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.

Options to correct local turbulent flux measurements for large-scale fluxes using an approach based on large-eddy simulation

Turbulent flux measurements suffer from a general systematic underestimation. One reason for this bias is non-local transport by large-scale circulations. A recently developed model for this additional transport of sensible and latent energy is evaluated for three different test sites. Different options on how to apply this correction are presented, and the results are evaluated against independent measurements.

Dynamics of variable dusk–dawn flow associated with magnetotail current sheet flapping

The sun’s magnetic field is carried across space by the solar wind – a hot plasma “stream” of ions and electrons – forming the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF can introduce asymmetries in the Earth’s magnetic field, giving plasma flowing within it a direction dependent on IMF orientation. Electric currents in near-Earth space can also influence these plasma flows. We investigate these two competing mechanisms and find that the currents can prevent the IMF from controlling the flow.

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