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Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.

ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics

We demonstrate here that nonlinear character of ice sheet dynamics, which was derived naturally from the conservation laws, is an effective means for propagating high-frequency forcing upscale.

Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. We model the future evolution of all glaciers in the Alps with a novel model that combines both ice flow and melt processes. We find that under a limited warming scenario about one-third of the present-day ice volume will still be present by the end of the century, while under strong warming more than 90 % of the volume will be lost by 2100.

A new description of probability density distributions of polar mesospheric clouds

In this paper we present a new description of statistical probability density functions (pdfs) of polar mesospheric clouds (PMC). We derive a new class of pdfs that describes successfully the probability statistic of ALOMAR lidar observations of different ice parameters. As a main advantage the new method allows us to connect different observational PMC distributions of lidar and satellite data, and also to compare with distributions from ice model studies.

Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions

We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.

Terrainbento 1.0: a Python package for multi-model analysis in long-term drainage basin evolution

Terrainbento 1.0 is a Python package for modeling the evolution of the surface of the Earth over geologic time (e.g., thousands to millions of years). Despite many decades of effort by the geomorphology community, there is no one established governing equation for the evolution of topography. Terrainbento 1.0 thus provides 28 alternative models that support hypothesis testing and multi-model analysis in landscape evolution.

Permafrost nitrous oxide emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance method

As frozen soil, called permafrost, increasingly thaws over the years, scientists have put much effort into understanding how this may increase carbon emissions, which would exacerbate climate change. Our work supports the emerging view that these efforts should also include nitrous oxide (N₂O), a more potent greenhouse gas. Using a low-flying aircraft to study thousands of acres of Alaskan permafrost, we observed average N₂O emissions higher than typically assumed for regions such as this.

Devito (v3.1.0): an embedded domain-specific language for finite differences and geophysical exploration

This paper presents Devito, a Python-based software. The aim of this software is to provide a high-level simple interface to users for the description and discretization of the mathematical definition of the physics. This research initially started as an attempt to improve research time, portability, and performance in exploration geophysics. We present the latest version of the software that is already making an impact in academics and industry.

Carbon cycling in the North American coastal ocean: a synthesis

We review and synthesize available information on coastal ocean carbon fluxes around North America (NA). There is overwhelming evidence, compiled and discussed here, that the NA coastal margins act as a sink. Our synthesis shows the great diversity in processes driving carbon fluxes in different coastal regions, highlights remaining gaps in observations and models, and discusses current and anticipated future trends with respect to carbon fluxes and acidification.

The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region: an overview

The Mediterranean region has returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry period occurring approximately 4200 years ago. We reviewed selected proxies to infer regional climate patterns between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. Temperature data suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform, whereas winter was drier, along with dry summers. However, some exceptions to this prevail, where wetter condition seems to have persisted, suggesting regional heterogeneity.

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