Benchmarking the predictive capability of hydrological models for river flow and flood peak predictions across over 1000 catchments in Great Britain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019 30 September 2019 We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability. Read more
Physical constraints for respiration in microbial hotspots in soil and their importance for denitrification Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-16-3665-2019 27 September 2019 A combination of gas chromatography and X-ray CT reveals the microscale processes that govern soil respiration. Aerobic and anaerobic respiration in microbial hotspots depends not only on the quality and quantity of soil organic matter, but also on the spatial distribution of hotspots. Denitrification kinetics are mainly governed by hotspot architecture due to local competition for oxygen during growth. Cumulative behavior is mainly governed by water saturation due to the overall supply with O2. Read more
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 26 September 2019 The ocean’s influence on the retreat of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers is a key factor determining future sea level. By considering observations of ~200 glaciers from 1960, we find a significant relationship between retreat and melting in the ocean. Projected forwards, this relationship estimates the future evolution of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers and provides a practical and empirically validated way of representing ice–ocean interaction in large-scale models used to estimate sea level rise. Read more
Global-scale human pressure evolution imprints on sustainability of river systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019 25 September 2019 A simple and effective index for the quantitative estimation of the evolution of human pressure on rivers at global scale is proposed. This index, based on nightlights and river discharge data, shows a significant increase from 1992 to 2013 worldwide. The most notable changes are found in river basins across Africa and Asia, where human pressure on rivers is growing markedly. This index identifies priority areas that can be targeted for the implementation of mitigation strategies and plans. Read more
Hybrid-Vlasov modelling of nightside auroral proton precipitation during southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions Annales Geophysicae DOI 10.5194/angeo-37-791-2019 10 September 2019 When the terrestrial magnetic field is disturbed, particles from the near-Earth space can precipitate into the upper atmosphere. This work presents, for the first time, numerical simulations of proton precipitation in the energy range associated with the production of aurora (∼1–30 keV) using a global kinetic model of the near-Earth space: Vlasiator. We find that nightside proton precipitation can be regulated by the transition region between stretched and dipolar geomagnetic field lines. Read more
How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved? Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-10-1469-2019 3 September 2019 In this paper, we outline the key insights from decision-making research about how, when faced with uncertainty, humans constrain decisions through the use of heuristics (rules of thumb), making them vulnerable to systematic and suboptimal decision biases. We also review existing strategies to debias decision-making that have applicability in the geosciences, giving special attention to strategies that make use of information technology and artificial intelligence. Read more
Improved methodologies for Earth system modelling of atmospheric soluble iron and observation comparisons using the Mechanism of Intermediate complexity for Modelling Iron (MIMI v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-12-3835-2019 2 September 2019 MIMI v1.0 was designed for use within Earth system models to simulate the 3-D emission, atmospheric processing, and deposition of iron and its soluble fraction. Understanding the iron cycle is important due to its role as an essential micronutrient for ocean phytoplankton; its supply limits primary productivity in many of the world’s oceans. Human activity has perturbed the iron cycle, and MIMI is capable of diagnosing many of these impacts; hence, it is important for future climate studies. Read more
CO2 effects on diatoms: a synthesis of more than a decade of ocean acidification experiments with natural communities Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-15-1159-2019 28 August 2019 Diatoms are a group of phytoplankton species responsible for ~ 25% of primary production on Earth. Ocean acidification (OA) could influence diatoms but the key question is if they become more or less important within marine food webs. We synthesize OA experiments with natural communities and found that diatoms are more likely to be positively than negatively affected by high CO2 and larger species may profit in particular. This has important implications for ecosystem services diatoms provide. Read more
Assessing the formation and evolution mechanisms of severe haze pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using process analysis Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-19-10845-2019 28 August 2019 The formation mechanism of a severe haze episode that occurred over North China in December 2015, the aerosol radiative impacts on the haze event and the influence mechanism were examined. The PM2.5 increase during the aerosol accumulation stage was mainly attributed to strong production by the aerosol chemistry process and weak removal by advection and vertical mixing. Restrained vertical mixing was the main reason for near-surface PM2.5 increase when aerosol radiative feedback was considered. Read more
A global delta dataset and the environmental variables that predict delta formation on marine coastlines Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-7-773-2019 26 August 2019 River deltas are valuable resources that support biodiversity and human habitation. Despite this we do not have a global census of deltas nor do we know the conditions that promote their formation. We surveyed 5399 river mouths greater than 50 m wide and found that 2174 (40%) create a delta. The conditions that lead to delta formation are high sediment input and low wave and tide conditions. These results can be used to understand how deltas will adapt to environmental changes. Read more
