Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022 26 September 2022 One of the questions facing the cryosphere community today is how increasing runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts marine ecosystems. To address this, long-term data are essential. Here, we present multi-site records of fjord productivity for SW Greenland back to the 19th century. We show a link between historical freshwater runoff and productivity, which is strongest in the inner fjord – influenced by marine-terminating glaciers – where productivity has increased since the late 1990s. Read more
Towards automatic finite-element methods for geodynamics via Firedrake Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022 23 September 2022 Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth’s mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth. Read more
The 852/3 CE Mount Churchill eruption: examining the potential climatic and societal impacts and the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the North Atlantic region Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022 21 September 2022 We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated. Read more
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022 19 September 2022 Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach. Read more
Effects of climate change in European croplands and grasslands: productivity, greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon storage Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-19-3021-2022 16 September 2022 Crop and grassland production indicates a strong reduction due to the shortening of the length of the growing cycle associated with rising temperatures. Greenhouse gas emissions will increase exponentially over the century, often exceeding the CO2 accumulation of agro-ecosystems. Water demand will double in the next few decades, whereas the benefits in terms of yield will not fill the gap of C losses due to climate perturbation. Climate change will have a regionally distributed effect in the EU. Read more
The Sun’s role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022 14 September 2022 Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry-climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate. Read more
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022 12 September 2022 A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard. Read more
Morphological controls on surface runoff: an interpretation of steady-state energy patterns, maximum power states and dissipation regimes within a thermodynamic framework Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-3125-2022 9 September 2022 In hydrology the formation of landform patterns is of special interest as changing forcings of the natural systems, such as climate or land use, will change these structures. In our study we developed a thermodynamic framework for surface runoff on hill slopes and highlight the differences of energy conversion patterns on two related spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that surface runoff on hill slopes approaches a maximum power state. Read more
Agricultural intensification vs. climate change: what drives long-term changes in sediment load? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-3021-2022 7 September 2022 This study explored the quantitative contribution of agricultural intensification and climate change to the sediment load of a small agricultural watershed. Rather than a change in climatic conditions, changes in the land structure notably altered sediment concentrations under high-flow conditions, thereby contributing most to the increase in annual sediment loads. More consideration of land structure improvement is required when combating the transfer of soil from land to water. Read more
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 5 September 2022 Climate change is causing rapid temperature increases in the polar regions. A fundamental question is whether these temperature increases are reversible. If we control carbon dioxide emissions, will the temperatures revert or will we have passed a tipping point beyond which return to the present state is impossible? Our mathematical model of the Arctic climate indicates that under present emissions the Arctic climate will change irreversibly to a warm climate before the end of the century. Read more
