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Technical Note: How accurate can stalagmite formation temperatures be determined using vapour bubble radius measurements in fluid inclusions?

Fluid inclusions inside stalagmites retain information on the cave temperature at the time they formed and thus can be used to reconstruct the continental climate of the past. A method for extracting this information based on a thermodynamic model and size measurements of femtosecond-laser-induced vapour bubbles is presented. Applying our method to stalagmites taken from the Milandre cave in the Swiss Jura Mountains demonstrate that palaeotemperatures can be determined with an accuracy of ±1°C.

Brief Communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability

Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events.

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).

A large-scale simulation model to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean

We present a new approach to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean. Cluster analysis is used to subdivide all karst regions into four typical karst landscapes and to simulate karst recharge with a process-based karst model. We estimate its parameters by a combination of a priori information and observations of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Independent observations of recharge that present large-scale models significantly under-estimate karstic recharge.

Twelve thousand years of dust: the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives

We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle.

A 50 % increase in the mass of terrestrial particles delivered by the Mackenzie River into the Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic Ocean) over the last 10 years

Eleven years (2003-2013) of satellite data were processed to observe the variations in suspended particulate matter concentrations at the mouth of the Mackenzie River and estimate the fluxes exported into the Canadian Arctic Ocean. Results show that these concentrations at the river mouth, in the delta zone and in the river plume have increased by 46%, 71% and 33%, respectively, since 2003. This corresponds to a more than 50% increase in particulate export from the river into the Beaufort Sea.

Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model

A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to evaluate emergence characteristics of four ocean ecosystem drivers under climate change. The drivers considered are warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and perturbations to biological productivity. The spatial and temporal hierarchies of the emergence of these drivers are considered, using concepts of both time of emergence and confidence intervals.

Ideas and perspectives: on the emission of amines from terrestrial vegetation in the context of new atmospheric particle formation

In this article we summarise recent science which shows how airborne amines, specifically methylamines (MAs), play a key role in new atmospheric particle formation (NPF) by stabilising small molecule clusters.

Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past

Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. In this study we show that climate change will reduce the amount of snow falling in the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and Karakoram substantially. The limited number of observations in remote upper-level terrain makes it difficult to get a complete overview of the situation today, but our results indicate that by 2071–2100 snowfall may be reduced by 30–70% with the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario.

Reliable, robust and realistic: the three R’s of next-generation land-surface modelling

Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.

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