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We explain why snow pits across different sites in East Antarctica show visually similar isotopic variations. We argue that the similarity and the apparent cycles of around 20 cm in the δD and δ¹⁸O variations are the result of a seasonal cycle in isotopes, noise, for example from precipitation intermittency, and diffusion. The near constancy of the diffusion length across many ice-coring sites explains why the structure and cycle length is largely independent of the accumulation conditions.

A machine learning calibration model using random forests to improve sensor performance for lower-cost air quality monitoring

Low-cost sensors promise neighborhood-scale air quality monitoring but have been plagued by inconsistent performance for precision, accuracy, and drift. CMU and SenSevere collaborated to develop the RAMP, which uses electrochemical sensors. We present a machine learning algorithm that overcomes previous performance issues and meets US EPA’s data quality recommendations for personal exposure for NO₂and tougher “supplemental monitoring” standards for CO&ozone across 19 RAMPs for several months.

Agricultural ammonia emissions in China: reconciling bottom-up and top-down estimates

Substantial differences exist in current estimates of agricultural ammonia emissions in China, hindering understanding of their environmental consequences. This study applies both bottom-up and top-down methods to better quantify agricultural ammonia sources in China using observations from satellite and surface networks interpreted by a chemical transport model. Our estimate of annual Chinese anthropogenic ammonia emission is 11.7 tg (teragram) for 2008 with a strong seasonality peak in summer.

Temporal variability of tidal and gravity waves during a record long 10-day continuous lidar sounding

Gravity waves (GWs) as well as solar tides are a key driving mechanism for the circulation in the Earth’s atmosphere. The temporal variation of these waves is studied using a record long 10-day continuous Rayleigh–Mie–Raman lidar sounding at midlatitudes. This data set shows a large variability of these waves on timescales of a few days and therefore provides new insights into wave intermittency phenomena, which can help to improve model simulations.

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018
10 January 2018

We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented.

New insights for mesospheric OH: multi-quantum vibrational relaxation as a driver for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium

The question of whether mesospheric rotational population distributions of vibrationally excited OH are in equilibrium with the local kinetic temperature has been debated over several decades. We examine the relationship of multi-quantum relaxation pathways with the behavior exhibited by OH(v) rotational population distributions and find that the effective rotational temperatures of mesospheric OH(v) deviate from local thermodynamic equilibrium for all observed vibrational levels.

Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018
4 January 2018

The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment.

The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while more humid central and western regions are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.

The SPACE 1.0 model: a Landlab component for 2-D calculation of sediment transport, bedrock erosion, and landscape evolution

Rivers control the movement of sediment and nutrients across Earth’s surface. Understanding how rivers change through time is important for mitigating natural hazards and predicting Earth’s response to climate change. We develop a new computer model for predicting how rivers cut through sediment and rock. Our model is designed to be joined with models of flooding, landslides, vegetation change, and other factors to provide a comprehensive toolbox for predicting changes to the landscape.

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