Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planet Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-739-2018 7 June 2018 Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets. Read more
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 6 June 2018 The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? Read more
High-resolution diapycnal mixing map of the Alboran Sea thermocline from seismic reflection images Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-14-403-2018 6 June 2018 The Alboran Sea is a dynamically active region. The interaction between Mediterranean and Atlantic water originates a set of sub-mesoscale structures and a complex sequence of processes that entail mixing close to the thermocline. Here we present a high-resolution map of the diapycnal diffusivity around the thermocline depth obtained using acoustic data recorded with a high-resolution multichannel seismic system. The map revels a patchy thermocline, with areas of strong diapycnal mixing. Read more
Snow depth on Arctic sea ice from historical in situ data The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-12-1867-2018 5 June 2018 In this paper we analyze snow data from Soviet airborne expeditions, Sever, which operated in late winter 1959-1986, in the Arctic and made snow measurements on the ice around plane landing sites. The snow measurements were made on the multiyear ice in the central Arctic and on the first-year ice in the Eurasian seas in the areas for which snow characteristics are poorly described in the literature. The main goal of this study is to produce an improved data set of snow depth on the sea ice. Read more
Consideration of various aspects in a drift study of MH370 debris Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-14-387-2018 4 June 2018 To assist in establishing the most likely location of the crash site of MH370, a Boeing 777 aircraft that went missing on March 7, 2014, a drift study was conducted by means of numerical modelling. Three elements were considered: (a) the efficacy of the aerial search; (b) water temperatures along the path of the flaperon; © beached debris distribution. The results obtained indicate the crash site is likely located between 25.5° S and 30.5° S along the so-called seventh arc in the Indian Ocean. Read more
On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018 1 June 2018 2017 marks the 30th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, which was implemented to protect the stratospheric ozone layer from the harmful effects of synthetic ozone depleting substances. Since the late 1990s atmospheric concentrations of these species have begun to decline, and as a result ozone concentrations are expected to increase. In this study we use an ensemble of chemistry–climate simulations to investigate recent ozone trends and search for early signs of ozone recovery. Read more
Glacial isostatic adjustment modelling: historical perspectives, recent advances, and future directions Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-6-401-2018 29 May 2018 This article is a contribution to a special issue onTwo centuries of modelling across scales. It describes the historical observations, evolving hypotheses, and early calculations that led to the development of the field of glacial isostatic sdjustment (GIA) modelling, which seeks to understand feedbacks between ice-sheet change, sea-level change, and solid Earth deformation. Recent and future advances are discussed. Future progress will likely involve an interdisciplinary approach. Read more
Aromatic acids in an Arctic ice core from Svalbard: a proxy record of biomass burning Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-14-637-2018 23 May 2018 This study presents organic acid levels in an ice core from Svalbard over the past 800 years. These acids are produced from wildfire emissions and transported as aerosol. Organic acid levels are high early in the record and decline until the 20th century. Siberia and Europe are likely the primary source regions of the fire emissions. The data are similar to those from a Siberian ice core prior to 1400 CE. The timing of the divergence after 1400 CE is similar to a shift in North Atlantic climate. Read more
Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-563-2018 18 May 2018 Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate. Read more
Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-507-2018 17 May 2018 Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models. Read more