How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved? Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-10-1469-2019 3 September 2019 In this paper, we outline the key insights from decision-making research about how, when faced with uncertainty, humans constrain decisions through the use of heuristics (rules of thumb), making them vulnerable to systematic and suboptimal decision biases. We also review existing strategies to debias decision-making that have applicability in the geosciences, giving special attention to strategies that make use of information technology and artificial intelligence. Read more
Improved methodologies for Earth system modelling of atmospheric soluble iron and observation comparisons using the Mechanism of Intermediate complexity for Modelling Iron (MIMI v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-12-3835-2019 2 September 2019 MIMI v1.0 was designed for use within Earth system models to simulate the 3-D emission, atmospheric processing, and deposition of iron and its soluble fraction. Understanding the iron cycle is important due to its role as an essential micronutrient for ocean phytoplankton; its supply limits primary productivity in many of the world’s oceans. Human activity has perturbed the iron cycle, and MIMI is capable of diagnosing many of these impacts; hence, it is important for future climate studies. Read more
CO2 effects on diatoms: a synthesis of more than a decade of ocean acidification experiments with natural communities Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-15-1159-2019 28 August 2019 Diatoms are a group of phytoplankton species responsible for ~ 25% of primary production on Earth. Ocean acidification (OA) could influence diatoms but the key question is if they become more or less important within marine food webs. We synthesize OA experiments with natural communities and found that diatoms are more likely to be positively than negatively affected by high CO2 and larger species may profit in particular. This has important implications for ecosystem services diatoms provide. Read more
Assessing the formation and evolution mechanisms of severe haze pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using process analysis Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-19-10845-2019 28 August 2019 The formation mechanism of a severe haze episode that occurred over North China in December 2015, the aerosol radiative impacts on the haze event and the influence mechanism were examined. The PM2.5 increase during the aerosol accumulation stage was mainly attributed to strong production by the aerosol chemistry process and weak removal by advection and vertical mixing. Restrained vertical mixing was the main reason for near-surface PM2.5 increase when aerosol radiative feedback was considered. Read more
A global delta dataset and the environmental variables that predict delta formation on marine coastlines Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-7-773-2019 26 August 2019 River deltas are valuable resources that support biodiversity and human habitation. Despite this we do not have a global census of deltas nor do we know the conditions that promote their formation. We surveyed 5399 river mouths greater than 50 m wide and found that 2174 (40%) create a delta. The conditions that lead to delta formation are high sediment input and low wave and tide conditions. These results can be used to understand how deltas will adapt to environmental changes. Read more
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 1: Projected climate and meteorology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3437-2019 23 August 2019 This article examines future atmospheric-related phenomena across the interior of western Canada associated with abusiness-as-usualclimate scenario. Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and extent of warming vary with season, and these generally lead to increases, especially after mid-century, in factors associated with winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods, although not necessarily summer convection. Read more
A low-cost device for measuring local magnetic anomalies in volcanic terrain Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems DOI 10.5194/gi-8-217-2019 22 August 2019 Our knowledge of the Earth’s magnetic field arises from magnetic signals stored in lavas. In rugged volcanic terrain, however, the magnetization of the underlying flows may influence the magnetic field as recorded by newly formed flows on top. To measure these local magnetic anomalies, we developed a low-cost field magnetometer with superior accuracy and user-friendliness. The first measurements on Mt. Etna show local magnetic variations that are much larger than expected. Read more
Fault-controlled dolomitization in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline (Central Apennines, Italy): record of a dominantly pre-orogenic fluid migration Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-10-1355-2019 20 August 2019 The dolomitized intervals of the Lower Jurassic deposits exposed in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline (Central Apennines, Italy) have been investigated. Accordingly, two fault-related dolomitization events were recognised and interpreted as having occurred before and during the Apenninic orogeny. The analyses suggest significant involvement of evaporitic fluids in both events, most likely derived from the underlying Upper Triassic Burano Formation in the detachment level. Read more
Load-resistance analysis: an alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-19-1807-2019 20 August 2019 It is known that fragility functions reflect localities (building design standards and topography) and flow velocity is more important, as damage might occur before flow depth reaches its maximum value. This research demonstrates that it is possible to accurately predict building damage by considering related forces with high accuracy, including resistant force, based on building design standards. This method will be useful for damage assessment in areas that have no experience of tsunamis. Read more
Seismic risk: the biases of earthquake media coverage Geoscience Communication DOI 10.5194/gc-2-125-2019 15 August 2019 Exploring a corpus of 320 888 news articles published by 32 worldwide newspapers in 2015, this paper shows the following: news covers a very small proportion of the total number of earthquakes occurring in a year; the duration of coverage is very short, which does not allow for proper coverage of long-term issues; and there is a typical framing of the news about earthquakes that introduces major biases in representation, impeding proper appropriation of the seismic risk by the public. Read more
