Highlight articles

A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021
8 February 2021

Extreme weather events are generally associated with unusual dynamical conditions, yet the signal-to-noise ratio of the dynamical aspects of climate change that are relevant to extremes appears to be small, and the nature of the change can be highly uncertain.

Opinion: Cloud-phase climate feedback and the importance of ice-nucleatingparticles

Shallow clouds covering vast areas of the world’s middle- and high-latitude oceans play a key role in dampening the global temperaturerise associated with CO2. These clouds, which contain both ice andsupercooled water, respond to a warming world by transitioning to a statewith more liquid water and a greater albedo, resulting in a negative“cloud-phase” climate feedback component. Here we argue that the magnitudeof the negative cloud-phase feedback component depends on the amount andnature of the small fraction of aerosol particles that can nucleate icecrystals. We propose that a concerted research effort is required to reducesubstantial uncertainties related to the poorly understoodsources, concentration, seasonal cycles and nature of these ice-nucleatingparticles (INPs) and their rudimentary treatment in climate models. Thetopic is important because many climate models may have overestimated themagnitude of the cloud-phase feedback, and those with better representationof shallow oceanic clouds predict a substantially larger climate warming. Wemake the case that understanding the present-day INP population in shallowclouds in the cold sector of cyclone systems is particularly critical fordefining present-day cloud phase and therefore how the clouds respond towarming. We also need to develop a predictive capability for future INPemissions and sinks in a warmer world with less ice and snow and potentiallystronger INP sources.

ModIs Dust AeroSol (MIDAS): a global fine-resolution dust optical depth data set

Monitoring and describing the spatiotemporal variability in dust aerosols is crucial for understanding their multiple effects, related feedbacks, and impacts within the Earth system. This study describes the development of the ModIs Dust AeroSol (MIDAS) data set. MIDAS provides columnar daily dust optical depth (DOD) at 550 nm at a global scale and fine spatial resolution (0.1∘ × 0.1∘) over a 15-year period (2003–2017). This new data set combines quality filtered satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from MODIS-Aqua at swath level (Collection 6.1; Level 2), along with DOD-to-AOD ratios provided by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis to derive DOD on the MODIS native grid. The uncertainties of the MODIS AOD and MERRA-2 dust fraction, with respect to the AEronet RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and LIdar climatology of vertical Aerosol Structure for space-based lidar simulation (LIVAS), respectively, are taken into account for the estimation of the total DOD uncertainty. MERRA-2 dust fractions are in very good agreement with those of LIVAS across the dust belt in thetropical Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian Sea; the agreement degrades in North America and the Southern Hemisphere, where dust sources are smaller. MIDAS, MERRA-2, and LIVAS DODs strongly agree when it comes to annual and seasonal spatial patterns, with colocated global DOD averages of 0.033, 0.031, and 0.029, respectively; however, deviations in dust loading are evident and regionally dependent. Overall, MIDAS is well correlated with AERONET-derived DODs (R=0.89) and only shows a small positive bias (0.004 or 2.7 %). Among the major dust areas of the planet, the highest R values (>0.9) are found at sites of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. MIDAS expands, complements, and upgrades the existing observational capabilities of dust aerosols, and it is suitable for dust climatological studies, model evaluation, and data assimilation.

MIDAS): a global fine-resolution dust optical depth data set">Read more

On the ice-nucleating potential of warm hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds

The question as to whether or not the presence of warm hydrometeors in clouds mayplay a significant role in the nucleation of new ice particles has been debatedfor several decades. While the early works of and indicated that it might be irrelevant, the more recentstudy of suggested otherwise. In this work, weattempt to quantify the ice-nucleating potential using high-fidelity flowsimulation techniques around a single hydrometeor and use favorable considerationsto upscale the effects to a collective of ice particles in clouds. While we find that ice nucleationmay be significantly enhanced in the vicinity of a warm hydrometeorand that the affected volume of air is much larger than previously estimated, it isunlikely that this effect alone causes the rapidenhancement of ice nucleation observed in some types of clouds, mainly due to the lowinitial volumetric ice concentration. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the excess nucleationrate does not primarily depend on the rate at which cloud volume is sampled by the meteors’wakes but is rather limited by the exposure time of ice-nucleating particles to the wake,which is estimated to be of the order of few microseconds. It is suggested to further investigatethis phenomenon by tracking the trajectories of ice-nucleating particles in order to obtaina parametrization which can be implemented into existing cloud models to investigate second-order effectssuch as ice enhancement after the onset of glaciation.

Stratospheric aerosol layer perturbation caused by the 2019 Raikoke and Ulawun eruptions and their radiative forcing

In June 2019 a stratospheric eruption occurred at Raikoke (48∘ N,153∘ E). Satellite observations show the injection of ash and SO2 into the lower stratosphere and an early entrainment of the plume into a cyclone. Following the Raikoke eruption, stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) values increased in the whole Northern Hemisphere and tropics and remained enhanced for more than 1 year, with peak values at 0.040 (short-wavelength, high northern latitudes) to 0.025 (short-wavelength, Northern Hemisphere average). Discrepancies between observations and global model simulations indicate that ash may have influenced the extent and evolution of the sAOD. Top of the atmosphere radiative forcings are estimated at values between -0.3 and -0.4Wm-2 (clear-sky) and of -0.1 to -0.2Wm-2 (all-sky), comparable to what was estimated for the Sarychev eruption in 2009. Almost simultaneously two significantly smaller stratospheric eruptions occurred at Ulawun (5∘ S, 151∘ E) in June and August. Aerosol enhancements from the Ulawun eruptions mainly had an impact on the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The Ulawun plume circled the Earth within 1 month in the tropics. Peak shorter-wavelength sAOD values at 0.01 are found in the tropics following the Ulawun eruptions and a radiative forcing not exceeding -0.15 (clear-sky) and -0.05 (all-sky). Compared to the Canadian fires (2017), Ambae eruption (2018), Ulawun (2019) and the Australian fires (2019/2020), the highest sAOD and radiative forcing values are found for the Raikoke eruption.

Fire and vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberia during the last 60 years based on high-resolution remote sensing

The rapidly warming Arctic undergoes transitions that can influence global carbon balance. One of the key processes is the shift towards vegetation types with higher biomass underlining a stronger carbon sink. The shift is predicted by bioclimatic models based on abiotic climatic factors, but it is not always confirmed with observations. Recent studies highlight the role of disturbances in the shift. Here we use high-resolution remote sensing to study the process of transition from tundra to forest and its connection to wildfires in the 20 000 km2 area in northwest Siberia. Overall, 40 % of the study area was burned during a 60-year period. Three-quarters of the burned areas were dry tundra. About 10 % of the study area experienced two–three fires with an interval of 15–60 years suggesting a shorter fire return interval than that reported earlier for the northern areas of central Siberia (130–350 years). Based on our results, the shift in vegetation (within the 60-year period) occurred in 40 %–85 % of the burned territories. All fire-affected territories were flat; therefore no effect of topography was detected. Oppositely, in the undisturbed areas, a transition of vegetation was observed only in 6 %–15 % of the territories, characterized by steeper topographic slopes. Our results suggest a strong role of disturbances in the tree advance in northwest Siberia.

Millennial-age glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) in forested mineral soils: 14C-based evidence for stabilization of microbial necromass

Understanding controls on the persistence of soil organic matter (SOM) is essential to constrain its role in the carbon cycle and inform climate–carbon cycle model predictions. Emerging concepts regarding the formation and turnover of SOM imply that it is mainly comprised of mineral-stabilized microbial products and residues; however, direct evidence in support of this concept remains limited. Here, we introduce and test a method for the isolation of isoprenoid and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) – diagnostic membrane lipids of archaea and bacteria, respectively – for subsequent natural abundance radiocarbon analysis. The method is applied to depth profiles from two Swiss pre-Alpine forested soils. We find that the Δ14C values of these microbial markers markedly decrease with increasing soil depth, indicating turnover times of millennia in mineral subsoils. The contrasting metabolisms of the GDGT-producing microorganisms indicates it is unlikely that the low Δ14C values of these membrane lipids reflect heterotrophic acquisition of 14C-depleted carbon. We therefore attribute the 14C-depleted signatures of GDGTs to their physical protection through association with mineral surfaces. These findings thus provide strong evidence for the presence of stabilized microbial necromass in forested mineral soils.

GDGTs) in forested mineral soils: 14C-based evidence for stabilization of microbial necromass">Read more

Increased carbon capture by a silicate-treated forested watershed affected by acid deposition

Meeting internationally agreed-upon climate targets requirescarbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies coupled with an urgent phase-down offossil fuel emissions. However, the efficacy and wider impacts of CDR arepoorly understood. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a land-based CDRstrategy requiring large-scale field trials. Here we show that a low 3.44 t ha-1 wollastonite treatment in an 11.8 ha acid-rain-impacted forested watershed in New Hampshire, USA, led to cumulative carbon capture by carbonic acid weathering of 0.025–0.13 t CO2 ha-1 over 15 years. Despite a 0.8–2.4 t CO2 ha-1 logistical carbon penalty from mining,grinding, transportation, and spreading, by 2015 weathering together withincreased forest productivity led to net CDR of 8.5–11.5 t CO2 ha-1. Our results demonstrate that ERW may be an effective, scalableCDR strategy for acid-impacted forests but at large scales requiressustainable sources of silicate rock dust.

Intercomparison of freshwater fluxes over ocean and investigations into water budget closure

The net exchange of water between the surface and atmosphere is mainly determined by the freshwater flux: the difference between evaporation ( E ) and precipitation ( P ), or E−P . Although there is consensus among modelers that with a warming climate E−P will increase, evidence from satellite data is still not conclusive, mainly due to sensor calibration issues. We here investigate the degree of correspondence among six recent
satellite-based climate data records and ERA5 reanalysis E−P data.

Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes

Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.

News & press Highlight articles

Highlight articles

Information for

External links