A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015 23 June 2015 The authors of this paper use remotely sensed land surface temperature and land cover in conjunction with air temperature and snowfall from a reanalysis product as input for a simple permafrost model. The scheme is applied to the permafrost regions bordering the North Atlantic. A comparison with ground temperatures in boreholes suggests a modeling accuracy of 2 to 2.5 °C. Read more
Towards observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015 22 June 2015 Water storages and fluxes on land are key variables in the earth system. To provide context for local investigations and to understand phenomena that emerge at large spatial scales, information on continental freshwater dynamics is needed. This paper presents a methodology to estimate continental scale runoff on a 0.5° spatial grid, which combines the advantages of in-situ observations with the power of machine learning regression. The resulting runoff estimates compare well with observations. Read more
Dynamics of the Oso-Steelhead landslide from broadband seismic analysis Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-1265-2015 17 June 2015 We carry out a study of the seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslides. We invert the long-period seismic signals generated by the first main event and obtain estimates of its trajectory, kinematics and mass. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, from the comparison of the energy of the short-period waves generated by both events, we can estimate the volume of the second. Read more
Technical Note: How accurate can stalagmite formation temperatures be determined using vapour bubble radius measurements in fluid inclusions? Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-11-905-2015 17 June 2015 Fluid inclusions inside stalagmites retain information on the cave temperature at the time they formed and thus can be used to reconstruct the continental climate of the past. A method for extracting this information based on a thermodynamic model and size measurements of femtosecond-laser-induced vapour bubbles is presented. Applying our method to stalagmites taken from the Milandre cave in the Swiss Jura Mountains demonstrate that palaeotemperatures can be determined with an accuracy of ±1°C. Read more
Brief Communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015 15 June 2015 Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events. Read more
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 15 June 2015 Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments). Read more
A large-scale simulation model to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-8-1729-2015 11 June 2015 We present a new approach to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean. Cluster analysis is used to subdivide all karst regions into four typical karst landscapes and to simulate karst recharge with a process-based karst model. We estimate its parameters by a combination of a priori information and observations of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Independent observations of recharge that present large-scale models significantly under-estimate karstic recharge. Read more
Twelve thousand years of dust: the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-11-869-2015 11 June 2015 We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle. Read more
A 50 % increase in the mass of terrestrial particles delivered by the Mackenzie River into the Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic Ocean) over the last 10 years Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-12-3551-2015 9 June 2015 Eleven years (2003-2013) of satellite data were processed to observe the variations in suspended particulate matter concentrations at the mouth of the Mackenzie River and estimate the fluxes exported into the Canadian Arctic Ocean. Results show that these concentrations at the river mouth, in the delta zone and in the river plume have increased by 46%, 71% and 33%, respectively, since 2003. This corresponds to a more than 50% increase in particulate export from the river into the Beaufort Sea. Read more
Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015 3 June 2015 A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to evaluate emergence characteristics of four ocean ecosystem drivers under climate change. The drivers considered are warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and perturbations to biological productivity. The spatial and temporal hierarchies of the emergence of these drivers are considered, using concepts of both time of emergence and confidence intervals. Read more
