Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-15-3659-2018 18 June 2018 The temperature sensitivity of soil carbon loss is a critical parameter for projecting future CO2. Isolating soil temperature response in the field is challenging due to difficulties isolating root and microbial respiration. We use a database of direct-warming soil carbon changes to generate a new global temperature sensitivity. Incorporating this into Earth system models reduces projected soil carbon. But it also shows that variation due to this parameter is as high as all other causes. Read more
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018 15 June 2018 We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline. Read more
On the social dynamics of moisture recycling Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-829-2018 14 June 2018 Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and precipitation. While the physical water cycle is well-understood, the social links among the recipients of precipitation back to the sources of evaporation are not. In this work, we develop a method to determine how these social connections unfold, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, finding that there are distinct types of social connections with corresponding policy and management tools. Read more
Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-797-2018 13 June 2018 Human-caused, climate change hazards in the ocean continue to aggravate over a very long time. For business as usual, we project the ocean oxygen content to decrease by 40 % over the next thousand years. This would likely have severe consequences for marine life. Global warming and oxygen loss are linked, and meeting the warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement effectively limits related marine hazards. Developments over many thousands of years should be considered to assess marine risks. Read more
Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-18-8227-2018 13 June 2018 A major phenomenon in the stratosphere is the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although a feature of the equatorial stratosphere, its influence extends to surface weather at both equatorial and mid latitudes. Improved knowledge of mechanisms of influence should help to improve weather forecasts. In this paper, QBO impacts at the surface are characterized and dominant mechanisms explored. Three pathways are identified, referred to as the tropical, subtropical and polar routes. Read more
On the Holocene evolution of the Ayeyawady megadelta Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-6-451-2018 12 June 2018 Here we provide the first results on the evolution of the Ayeyarwady delta, the last unstudied megadelta of Asia. In addition to its intrinsic value as a founding study on the Holocene development of this region, we advance new ideas on the climate control of monsoonal deltas as well as describe for the first time a feedback mechanism between tectonics and tidal hydrodynamics that can explain the peculiarities of the Ayeyarwady delta. Read more
Airborne wind lidar observations over the North Atlantic in 2016 for the pre-launch validation of the satellite mission Aeolus Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-11-3297-2018 11 June 2018 This work reports airborne wind lidar observations performed in a recent field campaign. The deployed lidar system serves as a demonstrator for the satellite instrument ALADIN on board Aeolus, which is scheduled for launch in 2018 and will become the first wind lidar in space. After presenting the measurement principle, operation procedures and wind retrieval algorithm, the obtained wind results are validated and discussed, providing valuable information in preparation for the satellite mission. Read more
Editorial: Geoscience Communication – Building bridges, not walls Geoscience Communication DOI 10.5194/gc-1-1-2018 11 June 2018 Welcome to the journal of Geoscience Communication! We decided to write this editorial in order to introduce ourselves (the executive editors of GC), to provide a history of its development, and to serve as a guideline for future authors who wish to submit to this journal. We hope that this article serves as a useful aid for people who are considering publishing in GC, as well as the wider geoscience community, and that it can act in the first instance as a FAQ for authors, editors, and readers alike. Read more
Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planet Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-739-2018 7 June 2018 Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets. Read more
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 6 June 2018 The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? Read more