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An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years

We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.

Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming

It was recently suggested that global warming can be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that is the case, it would have profound implications. We have assessed the validity of the claim by using a statistical technique that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.

Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.

ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity’s future

Scientists exploring the histories of planets and life are uniquely positioned to communicate a perspective that is fundamental to our survival: humanity is wholly embedded in Earth and its biosphere. There is no escaping our planet and its history. Only policies that build on this perspective will contribute to a flourishing future for humanity. We offer a few brief glimpses of this cosmic perspective and call on our colleagues to acknowledge the powerful stories emanating from their work.

Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability

We investigate whether the Amazon rainforest has lost substantial resilience since 1990. This assertion is based on trends in the observational record of vegetation density. We calculate the same metrics in a large number of climate model simulations and find that several models behave indistinguishably from the observations, suggesting that the observed trend could be caused by internal variability and that the cause of the ongoing rapid loss of Amazon rainforest is not mainly global warming.

Hydro-pedotransfer functions: a roadmap for future development

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are used to predict parameters of models describing the hydraulic properties of soils. The appropriateness of these predictions critically relies on the nature of the datasets for training the PTFs and the physical comprehensiveness of the models. This roadmap paper is addressed to PTF developers and users and critically reflects the utility and future of PTFs. To this end, we present a manifesto aiming at a paradigm shift in PTF research.

Linking geomorphological processes and wildlife microhabitat selection: nesting birds select refuges generated by permafrost degradation in the Arctic

In the Arctic tundra, climate change is transforming the landscape, and this may impact wildlife. We focus on three nesting bird species and the islets they select as refuges from their main predator, the Arctic fox. A geomorphological process, ice-wedge polygon degradation, was found to play a key role in creating these refuges. This process is likely to affect predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic tundra, highlighting the connections between nature’s physical and ecological systems.

Isotopomer labeling and oxygen dependence of hybrid nitrous oxide production

Nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, accumulates in regions of the ocean that are low in dissolved oxygen. We used a novel combination of chemical tracers to determine how nitrous oxide is produced in one of these regions, the eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean. Our experiments showed that the two most important sources of nitrous oxide under low-oxygen conditions are denitrification, an anaerobic process, and a novel “hybrid” process performed by ammonia-oxidizing archaea.

Quantum data assimilation: a new approach to solving data assimilation on quantum annealers

Data assimilation is a crucial component in the Earth science field, enabling the integration of observation data with numerical models. In the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP), data assimilation is particularly vital for improving initial conditions and subsequent predictions. However, the computational demands imposed by conventional approaches, which employ iterative processes to minimize cost functions, pose notable challenges in computational time. The emergence of quantum computing provides promising opportunities to address these computation challenges by harnessing the inherent parallelism and optimization capabilities of quantum annealing machines.

Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms

Observational data and numerical models suggest that, under climate change, elevated land surfaces warm faster than non-elevated ones. Proposed drivers of this “elevation-dependent warming” (EDW) include surface albedo and water vapour feedbacks, the temperature dependence of longwave emission, and aerosols. Yet the relative importance of each proposed mechanism both regionally and at large scales is unclear, highlighting an incomplete physical understanding of EDW.

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