NP Division Campfire: Perspectives on Climate with Gabriele Hegerl

This week Gabriele Hegerl will discuss “The detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change”.

This talk discusses the history of detection of climate change, starting with a string of similar papers setting out a methodology for early detection of climate change in noisy data by Bell, Hasselmann and North. I will discuss its first applications by a small group of scientists which lead to the conclusion of a ‘discernible’ human impact on climate. These results have since strengthened by quantifying the contribution by greenhouse gas and aerosol influences to the historical temperature record, and moving to its detection in precipitation, water vapour, satellite temperature and even attempts at circulation change detection. I will also discuss the role the record of the last millennium has played in this discussion, and the public perception of this detection of climate change. Recently, attribution has been broadened to discussing individual events, which is related to attribution of longterm change yet with important differences.
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