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Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene

Samples of bedrock recovered from below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet show that part of the ice sheet was thinner several thousand years ago than it is now and subsequently thickened. This is important because of concern that present ice thinning in this region may lead to rapid, irreversible sea level rise. The past episode of thinning at this site that took place in a similar, although not identical, climate was not irreversible; however, reversal required at least 3000 years to complete.

Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations

We present a new method for reconstructing ocean carbon using climate models and temperature and salinity observations. To test this method, we reconstruct modelled carbon using synthetic observations consistent with current sampling programmes. Sensitivity tests show skill in reconstructing carbon trends and variability within the upper 2000 m. Our results indicate that this method can be used for a new global estimate for ocean carbon content.

Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021

Our understanding of recent changes in atmospheric methane has defied explanation. Since 2007, the atmospheric growth of methane has accelerated to record-breaking values in 2020 and 2021. We use satellite observations of methane to show that (1) increasing emissions over the tropics are mostly responsible for these recent atmospheric changes, and (2) changes in the OH sink during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdown can explain up to 34% of changes in atmospheric methane for that year.

Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023
15 May 2023

We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.

Causal deep learning models for studying the Earth system

A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyse the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.

Evaluation of polarimetric ice microphysical retrievals with OLYMPEX campaign data

We present an evaluation of current retrieval techniques in the ice phase applied to polarimetric radar measurements with collocated in situ observations of aircraft conducted over the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, during winter 2015. Radar estimates of ice properties agreed most with aircraft observations in regions with pronounced radar signatures, but uncertainties were identified that indicate issues of some retrievals, particularly in warmer temperature regimes.

OLYMPEX campaign data">Read more

Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023
8 May 2023

The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hill slopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hill slopes might reach up to 20–25 m.

Prediction of the absolute hydraulic conductivity function from soil water retention data

The soil hydraulic conductivity function is usually predicted from the water retention curve (WRC) with the requirement of at least one measured conductivity data point for scaling the function. We propose a new scheme of absolute hydraulic conductivity prediction from the WRC without the need of measured conductivity data. Testing the new prediction with independent data shows good results. This scheme can be used when insufficient or no conductivity data are available.

Porting the WAVEWATCH III (v6.07) wave action source terms to GPU

Wind-generated waves play an important role in modifying physical processes at the air–sea interface, but they have been traditionally excluded from climate models due to the high computational cost of running spectral wave models for climate simulations. To address this, our work identified and accelerated the computationally intensive section of WAVEWATCH III on GPU using OpenACC. This allows for high-resolution modelling of atmosphere–wave–ocean feedbacks in century-scale climate integrations.

WAVEWATCH III (v6.07) wave action source terms to GPU">Read more

Selective deuteration as a tool for resolving autoxidation mechanisms in α-pinene ozonolysis

We discuss and show the viability of a method where multiple isotopically labelled precursors are used for probing the formation pathways of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) from the oxidation of the monoterpene a-pinene. HOMs are very important for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in forested regions, and monoterpenes are the single largest source of SOA globally. The fast reactions forming HOMs have thus far remained elusive despite considerable efforts over the last decade.

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