Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025 3 October 2025 Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming. Read more
The coupled oxygen and carbon dynamics in the subsurface waters of the Gulf and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary and implications for artificial oxygenation Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-2179-2025 2 October 2025 We combine two decades of oxygen data with new carbon observations and a tracer-informed model to quantify oxygen loss and carbon buildup in the deep waters of the Gulf and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary. We then test a novel idea: reoxygenating these waters with the oxygen produced as a by-product from green-hydrogen production. Our results suggest this could significantly reduce hypoxia, though full recovery would require larger inputs. Read more
Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025 1 October 2025 Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and instances of extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation. Read more
Visualising historical changes in air pollution with the Air Quality Stripes Geoscience Communication DOI 10.5194/gc-8-229-2025 1 October 2025 The Air Quality Stripes images visualise historical changes in particulate matter air pollution in over 150 cities worldwide. The project celebrates significant improvements in air quality in regions like Europe, North America, and China while highlighting the urgent need for action in areas such as central Asia. Designed to raise awareness, the images aim to inspire discussions about the critical impact of air pollution and the global inequalities it causes. Read more
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025 30 September 2025 The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security. Read more
Physiological responses to ultra-high CO2 levels in an evergreen tree species Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-5069-2025 28 September 2025 As atmospheric CO2 increases globally, plants increase the rate of photosynthesis. Still, leaf–gas exchange can be downregulated by the plant. Here we tested the limits of these plant responses in a fruit tree species under very high CO2 levels relevant to the future Earth and to contemporary Mars. Plant water use decreased at 1600 ppm CO2 and remained low at 6000 ppm. Photosynthesis significantly increased at 6000 ppm. In summary, ultra-high CO2 may partly compensate for limited water availability. Read more
Technical note: Pondi – a low-cost logger for long-term monitoring of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide in aquatic and terrestrial systems Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-5051-2025 27 September 2025 The Pondi is a cost-effective, lightweight logger designed for long-term monitoring of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It addresses key challenges in greenhouse gas monitoring by providing an automated, low-cost, solar-powered solution with cloud connectivity and real-time analytics. Its robust design enables deployment in diverse environmental conditions, supporting large-scale, high-resolution emission assessments. Read more
Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders Weather and Climate Dynamics DOI 10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025 26 September 2025 Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can improve their prediction. We present a generative machine learning method to identify key dynamical drivers of an impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applied to extreme precipitation in Morocco, we show that these targeted regimes are more predictive of the impact while preserving their own predictability and physical consistency. Read more
4D GPR imaging of a near-terminus glacier collapse feature The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-19-4045-2025 25 September 2025 We demonstrate the use of a drone-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system to gather high-resolution, high-density 4D data over a near-terminus glacier collapse feature. We monitor the growth of an air cavity and the evolution of the subglacial drainage system, providing insights into the dynamics of the collapse event. This work highlights potential future applications of drone-based GPR for monitoring glaciers, in particular in regions which are inaccessible by surface-based methods. Read more
Impacts of eutrophication and deoxygenation on the sediment biogeochemistry in the Sea of Marmara Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-4953-2025 24 September 2025 This study aims to understand the impacts of deoxygenation and eutrophication on sedimentary biogeochemical processes in the Sea of Marmara. We showed that diffusive phosphorus and fixed nitrogen fluxes were markedly high under highly eutrophic and hypoxic areas of the Sea of Marmara. This benthic feedback may exacerbate the ongoing eutrophication and deoxygenation in the Sea of Marmara, which is now at risk of becoming one of the major marine dead zones. Read more
